HeraldNet: Did one poll give two results?



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The Petri Dish

July 15, 2008

Did one poll give two results?

Posted at 12:01 am by Jerry Cornfield

Democratic Rep. Liz Loomis led Republican challenger Mike Hope by six points in a poll conducted late last month by the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

That edge in a survey of 400 likely voters in the 44th Legislative District - split evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents – is good news for Loomis who was appointed to the job in January and targeted for defeat this fall by the GOP.

But Hope is pretty confident that he led Loomis in the same poll among the same voters.

Is that possible?It's common for participants in polls to be asked twice who they are inclined to support. Often one of the first questions to them is something like, “If the election were held today…”. Then, after hearing a series of comments about each candidate – their plusses and minuses - the participants are again asked who they might support.

Republicans who made me aware of the poll insist Hope led Loomis after the initial query of who might get their vote. They don't dispute her advantage - they just say it came at the end of the poll.

I phoned the House Democratic Campaign Committee several times this past week seeking a clear explanation. Veteran Democrat strategist Christian Sinderman, who is consulting for Loomis, called back but shed no light on the situation,

“We’re not confirming anything and we’re not providing any copy of the poll,” he said.

“Mike Hope and the Republicans can continue to say what they want about a poll they have not seen and did not pay for. It’s an internal document and that’s where it is going to stay,” he said.

This is no small deal for Hope who lost in 2004 and 2006 against Rep. Hans Dunshee in this same legislative district.

In March, while he was unsure whether to run, the House Republican Organizational Committee conducted a poll of 300 people that showed him ahead of Loomis. Those numbers helped convince him to go forward.

“This was clear evidence that we were beating her in March, that we’re beating her today and I plan on beating her in the primary and general elections,” Hope said.

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the "stacking" of the legislature
In response to Mr. DeBlasio's comment...wake me up when the GOP gets close to "stacking" any place with Republicans.

Last time I checked the Democrats have the majority in both houses of the legislature, and the Governor's mansion as well. Come to think of it, they control both the US Senate and the US Congress, which has single-digit approval ratings. And yet the Democrats have the temerity to demand "change."

I think a little more stacking of the entire political system with Republicans might not be a bad thing for our country.
Chad Minnick | Jul 16, 2008 9:52 pm | 0 replies | View all | Post reply | Request removal

Hope clearly has the support of residents!
Loomis has not won an election when opposed. Her support comes from the dem's base, ie- she has friends in high places. Why else would they appoint a freshman with less than 6 months on the job to vise chair of transportation, no wonder we have such a traffic mess.

Liz Loomis is arrogant and out of touch with the regular person. She is a political machine and is no-one to fool with! The unspoken "fear of retribution" keeps people on there toes.

Mike Hope has the support of the working class and the young people alike. He's easy to talk to and being a Police Officer, U.S. Marine, Small Business Owner and Youth Sports Coach says everything about Mike's community involvement and moral character.

Mike will run a positive campaign, I actually don't think he has the ability to be negative. If stone thowing starts it will be from Loomis and she has more to scrutinize then Mike does.
Todd Elvig | Jul 16, 2008 7:21 pm | 0 replies | View all | Post reply | Request removal

No Hope for the perennial loser!
Just listen to Mr. Hope for a few minutes and it becomes embarassingly obvious that he isn't qualified. Watch your mail box for nasty last minute attacks on senator Loomis from obscure, well financed groups secretly representing special interests that stand to gain from stacking both houses of the legislature with Republican nincompoops.
Jim DeBlasio | Jul 16, 2008 3:40 pm | 0 replies | View all | Post reply | Request removal

just as we thought
The Democrats (like the Republicans) are quick to bounce out to the press any poll results that show them ahead of their opponents. That's how we know Loomis isn't doing so well in their own poll. They refuse to release any of the numbers.

If I had a poll that was embarrassing it would remain "an internal document" as well.
Chad Minnick | Jul 16, 2008 10:02 am | 0 replies | View all | Post reply | Request removal

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