When light rail finally makes its way from Seattle to Lynnwood, it’s likely to take one of two routes: along I-5 the entire way, or partly on I-5 and mostly on Highway 99 through Shoreline.
These are the two choices that Sound Transit says will provide the fastest travel times, attract the most riders and carry the most potential for economic benefit.
Of these two, I-5 is the leader in most of those categories, although a strong argument could be made for the economic development possibilities of bringing the line up Highway 99, Sound Transit officials say.
These choices — and any and all other ideas — are scheduled to be discussed at public meetings next month.
Either way, this leg of the light-rail system isn’t scheduled to be done at least until 2023.
The planning, however, began in earnest last year, after voters in 2008 approved an $18 billion plan to add to the region’s mass transportation system with more trains and buses. The vote raised sales tax a half-cent per dollar in the Sound Transit service area in Snohomish, King and Pierce counties.
The plan as presented to voters assumed a route from Northgate along I-5 to the Lynnwood Transit Center at a cost of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion.
Still, to receive federal grants, planners have to show they’ve considered all possible choices, including other rail routes and buses, officials have said.
“Nothing’s off the table until the (Sound Transit) board makes the decision,” likely in 2012 or 2013, said Matt Shelden, Sound Transit’s light rail development manager for the north corridor.
With the economic recession taking a big bite out of Sound Transit’s sales-tax revenue, grant money will be that much more important, Shelden said. At the current pace, revenues in the three counties combined are expected to fall $3.9 billion short of the target by 2023.
So far, however, the project is on schedule, officials say. Construction is under way on rail from downtown Seattle to the University of Washington and planners are designing a route from the UW to Northgate.
For the north end, planners analyzed suggestions from the public during workshops last year. In addition to the rail lines on I-5 and Highway 99, ideas included two other routes that mostly followed 15th Avenue NE from Northgate through north Seattle and Shoreline to Mountlake Terrace.
Planners also projected travel times and ridership levels for bus service with limited stops, either entirely on I-5 or on a combination of the freeway and streets.
Buses would be cheaper than rail but they wouldn’t be as fast or carry as many riders, according to a Sound Transit report.
Among the rail choices, I-5 has quicker travel times, more projected riders and lower construction costs than Highway 99, but the latter is better than using 15th Avenue NE.
The I-5 line would be part elevated and part at street level, running up the east side of the freeway from Northgate to Mountlake Terrace, then in the median to the Lynnwood Park-and Ride lot.
Stops would be located at N. 145th Street in Seattle, N. 185th Street in Shoreline and in Mountlake Terrace.
On Highway 99, the rail line would run along the west side or in the median, mostly elevated. Stops would be located at N. 130th Street in Seattle and N. 155th and N. 185th streets in Shoreline, along with Mountlake Terrace.
Where Highway 99 scores even with I-5, or better, is in potential for economic development along the corridor, Shelden said.
Rail lines and bus stops tend to encourage development nearby, and “99 is a strong performer there,” he said.
Shelden acknowledged, though, that the Highway 99 alternative has a lot to overcome, especially because of its added cost.
“There seems a pretty significant premium to afford that alternative,” he said.
Bill Sheets: 425-339-3439; sheets@heraldnet.com.
The comparison
Sound Transit’s comparison of light rail on I-5 and Highway 99, from Lynnwood to Northgate:
Cost: I-5, $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion; Highway 99, $2 billion to $2.3 billion
Length and number of stations: I-5, 8.5 miles, four stations; Highway 99: 10.2 miles, five stations
Travel time from Lynnwood to Northgate: I-5, 14 minutes; Highway 99: 18 minutes
Projected daily riders in 2030: I-5, 52,000; Highway 99, 48,000
Economic development potential: I-5, stronger at Northgate and Lynnwood, weaker along the line; Highway 99, stronger along the line, weaker at Northgate and Lynnwood
Public meetings on the plans are scheduled for Oct. 11 in Shoreline, Oct. 13 in Lynnwood and Oct. 18 in north Seattle. Times and places have yet to be announced.
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