What to make of the recent news that the state Department of Transportation is taking a “wait and see” approach before endorsing red-light enforcement cameras as the ticket for traffic safety on state highways?
And what to think, as well, of recent data offered out of Lynnwood suggesting that sharp declines in the number of camera-generated tickets issued to speeders in school zones is evidence the program is working?
Charles Territo, spokesman for Lynnwood’s enforcement-camera vendor, American Traffic Solutions, suggested that raising doubts about the cameras changing driver behavior would be akin to arguing that the earth is flat.
Flat-earth theories aside, readers have been wondering for months how to resolve the debate over just how much safety is resulting from Lynnwood’s camera program.
One of our frequent posters on HeraldNet, an attorney who uses the screen name Tom P, suggested we contact forensic epidemiologist Michael D. Freeman. He’s an expert witness on the science of studying how people are killed or injured in traffic crashes, and a professor in public health and preventive medicine at the Oregon Health and Science University School of Medicine.
Freeman agreed to look at crash data Lynnwood police earlier supplied in response to a public record request from The Herald.
The data compared crashes at each intersection with red-light cameras, before and after the devices were installed. Although supporters have for years claimed the camera program has brought lots of safety, the cops have acknowledged the crash data is inconclusive.
Freeman concurs.
“At the present time I don’t see anything that allows anyone to draw any conclusions. We just don’t know what is going on,” he said.
In an email, Freeman offered more explanation:
“The numbers actually don’t have any meaning without some comparison to intersections where there are no red light cameras. Collisions, including those resulting in injury and death, have generally decreased in the past few years. Thus, the observed decrease in collisions could be an environmental effect. As an example, there are new laws regarding the use of cell phones while driving that coincide with the decrease in the number of crashes. Additionally, it looks like collisions decreased in only around half of the installations — it is possible the decrease is simply a random effect.”
The decrease in collisions may be linked to the cameras, but Freeman said he didn’t think that was the most likely explanation.
To resolve the question, somebody would need to examine traffic and crash patterns citywide. They’d also require data from intersections inside and outside Lynnwood, with enforcement cameras and without. A minimum analysis would compare two to three years of data.
Freeman said the situation is similar for the school-zones cameras, but speeding there is a more easily identified problem, and it may be easier to show that a reduction in camera tickets mirrors changes in driver behavior.
Still, more study and analysis are necessary to control for a host of factors, he said, including traffic volumes and even geography.
“We are all in favor of safety but you have to demonstrate that this actually is safety,” Freeman said.
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