U.S. moves closer to energy independence

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It has been four years since Jay Hakes wrote a book about energy independence and the benefits it could give the United States.

But would it ever happen? The former head of the Energy Information Administration was hopeful, though he had seen a promising effort to curb imports in the 1970s and the early 1980s eventually derailed by cheap imported oil.

His optimism, however, is growing that the country is again on a path to energy independence and that this time it could stick. A multiprong effort that includes increased domestic oil and natural-gas production, energy efficiency and more biofuels has already helped push petroleum imports down to 45 percent of the petroleum needed to meet U.S. demand, compared with 60 percent in 2005.

“There is not a silver bullet, but there is silver buckshot,” Hakes said.

The idea that energy independence is an achievable goal has made it an issue in the presidential campaign, although it has been overshadowed by jobs and the economy.

Republican nominee Mitt Romney promises to be more aggressive on drilling for oil and natural gas by opening most areas where it is not now allowed, including off the Pacific Coast. He would also approve the Keystone pipeline, which would boost oil imports from Canada.

President Barack Obama, a Democrat, is pushing an “all of the above” approach and has some differences with Romney’s. Obama would increase drilling, but some areas would remain off limits. He has approved a portion of the Keystone line, but says he won’t make a decision on the northern leg until next year.

The Obama administration in August announced new vehicle fuel economy standards, rising to an average of 54.5 miles per gallon. Romney opposes the new standard.

But this much seems clear despite the different approaches: Our reliance on foreign oil will decline.

“No matter who is elected, we will be more energy independent every year for the next decade, unless there are some extreme policy changes,” said James Williams, an analyst for WTRG Economics.

There is a range of forecasts to show the point. The Energy Information Administration has one of the more conservative outlooks. The federal agency expects that by 2024 the United States will produce enough petroleum and biofuels to meet 62 percent of demand. Toss in what Canada delivers, and it could rise to 75 percent.

The American Petroleum Institute, an oil industry trade group, wants to unleash the drilling rigs, including into current off-limits areas. By 2024, it says, U.S. production could provide 74 percent of the country’s liquid fuels and biofuels 10 percent more. Toss in a growing contribution from Canada, and the United States wouldn’t need petroleum from any other country.

There are problems with both forecasts. The Energy Information Administration considers only policies in place when it makes its forecasts, so its outlook for production and energy conservation could be understated. The American Petroleum Institute by contrast is probably overestimating production gains, in part because environmental objections could curb drilling in some areas.

Neither forecast contains big contributions from electric or natural gas-powered vehicles, which shouldn’t be counted out. And a major development such as a breakthrough that would commercially produce fuel from algae would be a game changer.

On the pessimistic side, some analysts think the world oil situation will be much worse than most forecasters are saying. They think production estimates are too optimistic and in any event will be overtaken by rising demand from China and other emerging countries.

Defining and measuring energy independence can be difficult. Typically it’s thought to mean being completely self-sufficient, but Hakes said reducing imports to between 25 and 33 percent of demand would be enough to make the United States less beholden to Middle East supplies and would shield the country’s economy from the kind of oil shock that happened during the OPEC embargo in the 1970s.

Future progress will depend on increased supplies of liquid fuels while curbing domestic consumption.

Here are some things to watch:

Total supplies of liquid fuels come from crude oil, natural gas liquids, biofuels such as ethanol, and even a gain in the refining process that produces more petroleum products than the volume of oil going in. One of the easiest ways to keep track is U.S. crude oil production, which has already reversed a decline. August production averaged 6.1 million barrels a day compared with 4.9 million barrels four years ago. That happened despite a decline in Gulf of Mexico production, which was more than offset by places such as North Dakota, which is recovering oil from shale.

Biofuels, mainly ethanol, have become a major player in reducing imports, displacing about 6 percent of annual demand for petroleum gasoline. A federal mandate calls for more than doubling biofuels by 2022, but there are challenges. One big hurdle is bringing along the process of making cellulosic ethanol, which uses ingredients such as corn stalks and switchgrass instead of corn.

Overall U.S. consumption of petroleum has declined by more than 2 million barrels per day. A good chunk of that decline — perhaps half — came from the weak economy. But efforts are under way that could keep consumption down, including the fuel economy standards for vehicles. The Obama administration says the fuel savings from model years through 2025 will amount to 2.2 million barrels of oil a day.

Finally, there is Canada, which accounts for 29 percent of U.S. oil imports. The country reduced oil exports to the United States during the 1970s embargo because it needed the oil for itself, but it is still considered our most reliable supplier. Decisions such as whether to approve the Keystone pipeline could decide whether it will supply more in the future, further reducing imports from other countries.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

A firefighter stands in silence before a panel bearing the names of L. John Regelbrugge and Kris Regelbrugge during the ten-year remembrance of the Oso landslide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘Flood of emotions’ as Oso Landslide Memorial opens on 10th anniversary

Friends, family and first responders held a moment of silence at 10:37 a.m. at the new 2-acre memorial off Highway 530.

Julie Petersen poses for a photo with images of her sister Christina Jefferds and Jefferds’ grand daughter Sanoah Violet Huestis next to a memorial for Sanoah at her home on March 20, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. Peterson wears her sister’s favorite color and one of her bangles. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
‘It just all came down’: An oral history of the Oso mudslide

Ten years later, The Daily Herald spoke with dozens of people — first responders, family, survivors — touched by the deadliest slide in U.S. history.

Victims of the Oso mudslide on March 22, 2014. (Courtesy photos)
Remembering the 43 lives lost in the Oso mudslide

The slide wiped out a neighborhood along Highway 530 in 2014. “Even though you feel like you’re alone in your grief, you’re really not.”

Director Lucia Schmit, right, and Deputy Director Dara Salmon inside the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management on Friday, March 8, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Oso slide changed local emergency response ‘on virtually every level’

“In a decade, we have just really, really advanced,” through hard-earned lessons applied to the pandemic, floods and opioids.

Ron and Gail Thompson at their home on Monday, March 4, 2024 in Oso, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
In shadow of scarred Oso hillside, mudslide’s wounds still feel fresh

Locals reflected on living with grief and finding meaning in the wake of a catastrophe “nothing like you can ever imagine” in 2014.

Imagine Children's Museum's incoming CEO, Elizabeth "Elee" Wood. (Photo provided by Imagine Children's Museum)
Imagine Children’s Museum in Everett will welcome new CEO in June

Nancy Johnson, who has led Imagine Children’s Museum in Everett for 25 years, will retire in June.

Kelli Littlejohn, who was 11 when her older sister Melissa Lee was murdered, speaks to a group of investigators and deputies to thank them for bringing closure to her family after over 30 years on Thursday, March 28, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘She can rest in peace’: Jury convicts Bothell man in 1993 killing

Even after police arrested Alan Dean in 2020, it was unclear if he would stand trial. He was convicted Thursday in the murder of Melissa Lee, 15.

Ariel Garcia, 4, was last seen Wednesday morning in an apartment in the 4800 block of Vesper Dr. (Photo provided by Everett Police)
Everett police searching for missing child, 4

Ariel Garcia was last seen Wednesday at an apartment in the 4800 block of Vesper Drive. The child was missing under “suspicious circumstances.”

The rezoned property, seen here from the Hillside Vista luxury development, is surrounded on two sides by modern neighborhoods Monday, March 25, 2024, in Lake Stevens, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Despite petition, Lake Stevens OKs rezone for new 96-home development

The change faced resistance from some residents, who worried about the effects of more density in the neighborhood.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, left, introduces Xichitl Torres Small, center, Undersecretary for Rural Development with the U.S. Department of Agriculture during a talk at Thomas Family Farms on Monday, April 3, 2023, in Snohomish, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Under new federal program, Washingtonians can file taxes for free

At a press conference Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene called the Direct File program safe, easy and secure.

Former Snohomish County sheriff’s deputy Jeremie Zeller appears in court for sentencing on multiple counts of misdemeanor theft Wednesday, March 27, 2024, at Snohomish County Superior Court in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Ex-sheriff’s deputy sentenced to 1 week of jail time for hardware theft

Jeremie Zeller, 47, stole merchandise from Home Depot in south Everett, where he worked overtime as a security guard.

Everett
11 months later, Lake Stevens man charged in fatal Casino Road shooting

Malik Fulson is accused of shooting Joseph Haderlie to death in the parking lot at the Crystal Springs Apartments last April.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.