California could run short on teachers

LOS ANGELES — Years of pink slips have taken a toll on California’s teachers to be sure, but the dim job market has also had an impact on people wanting to become teachers at a time when the state’s population of children reaching school age is rising.

While the numbers do not yet signal an outright teacher shortage, officials say they point to a worrisome trend of a graying workforce and fewer entrants into what has traditionally been one of the bulwark professions of the middle class.

“We’ve been worrying about this for a while,” said Juliet Tiffany-Morales, research analyst for SRI International who has studied education trends. “A shortage could materialize. There’s definitely a smaller pool of people going into teaching.”

So far, the profession is holding its own because school districts have increased class sizes to cope with teacher layoffs, and the number of retiring teachers has more or less equaled the number of new teachers, Tiffany-Morales said. Both figure in the 15,000 to 20,000 range.

But a pinch could arise with a predicted steady rise of 1.4 percent in the state’s population of school-age children over the next decade, a new transitional kindergarten grade for 4-year-olds that went into effect this fall and the introduction of national curriculum standards which will require retraining that some older teachers may not opt for.

“It’s definitely something that people are keeping an eye on,” said Holly Jacobson, director of the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning at WestEd, which tracks teacher supply trends. “There are a lot of variables at play so it’s hard to predict, but we’re seeing a shift in teachers.”

The biggest factor driving teacher demand is demographics. The state Department of Finance projects more than 87,000 more children will be entering school from the 2011-12 school year to 2021-22 — about 60,000 of them elementary schoolers with the Inland Empire counties seeing the biggest increases.

Meanwhile, teacher preparation programs are losing enrollment. At California State University, which trains half of the state’s teachers, the dropoff has been huge: from more than 31,000 teaching students in 2002-03 to just 11,000 in 2010-11.

Statewide, teacher credentials have dropped from more than 27,000 issued in 2003-04 to 18,700 in 2010-11, according to the Commission on Teacher Credentialing.

“Probably the biggest factor has been the job market,” said Beverly Young, CSU assistant vice chancellor of teacher education and public school programs.

The teacher workforce lost more than 23,000 teachers from 2008 to 2011, mostly due to layoffs caused by state funding cuts although there has also been a big increase in retirements, some through incentive programs, according to a report “Status of the Teaching Profession 2011” by the Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning.

Most of the laid off teachers were those newer to the profession in accordance with the state’s last-hired-first-fired layoff policy, which has had a chilling effect on students contemplating teaching careers, Young said. “If you’re a college student, you’re seeing that happening,” she said.

But Jacobson noted that while teaching has fewer new entrants, a shortage is likely not imminent. Thousands of laid off teachers are available for open positions should they arise. Some laid off teachers may move into other fields, but many continue to work as substitutes and are waiting to be called from rehiring lists, she said.

While much has been made of a wave of baby-boomer retirements, California’s unstable economy has spurred many older teachers hang on longer, creating fewer openings. According to the 2011 report, 57 percent of teachers have more than 10 years of experience in 2010-11, up from 46 percent five years earlier.

While they will eventually retire, some more experienced teachers could be spurred to move on sooner with the introduction of the Common Core State Standards, a national curriculum that will require teachers to undergo retraining. “That could weed out some older people,” Jacobson said.

Experts note there are still teaching jobs available in fields that have longstanding shortages — math, science, bilingual and special education teachers have always been highly sought after, and some laid off teachers are going back to school to earn credentials in those areas. Inner-city and outlying rural schools also have high turnover.

Still, outside of those specialized areas, jobs are hard to come by.

Olga Rubio, professor and coordinator of bilingual authorizations at Cal State Long Beach, said it’s even hard to place student teachers with school districts, despite the fact that there are fewer students. “We squeeze by, but it really takes work and negotiating to get these student teachers placed,” she said.

In the past, student teachers would usually get hired by the district, but these days they are more likely to only find work as substitutes. “People who want to be teachers are deeply committed so they just do it and hope that sooner or later there’ll be a job,” she said. “It’s discouraging for them.”

Damon Brodowski, who is studying at Cal State Long Beach to earn his credential to teach middle and high school English, said he’s sticking with his career goal although he knows current job prospects are weak when he graduates in the spring.

To give the employment market time to bounce back, he’s planning on pursuing a master’s degree instead of job-hunting right away. He hopes that will make him a more attractive job candidate, as well as boost his pay, when schools start hiring again. He said he remains optimistic.

“I was kind of worried that there aren’t going to be any jobs when I get out of school, but there’s going to be a big need for educators again,” he said. “Teaching is just something I really enjoy. Seeing students progress and achieve their goals, that’s rewarding.”

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Local News

A firefighter stands in silence before a panel bearing the names of L. John Regelbrugge and Kris Regelbrugge during the ten-year remembrance of the Oso landslide on Friday, March 22, 2024, at the Oso Landslide Memorial in Oso, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
‘Flood of emotions’ as Oso Landslide Memorial opens on 10th anniversary

Friends, family and first responders held a moment of silence at 10:37 a.m. at the new 2-acre memorial off Highway 530.

Julie Petersen poses for a photo with images of her sister Christina Jefferds and Jefferds’ grand daughter Sanoah Violet Huestis next to a memorial for Sanoah at her home on March 20, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. Peterson wears her sister’s favorite color and one of her bangles. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
‘It just all came down’: An oral history of the Oso mudslide

Ten years later, The Daily Herald spoke with dozens of people — first responders, family, survivors — touched by the deadliest slide in U.S. history.

Victims of the Oso mudslide on March 22, 2014. (Courtesy photos)
Remembering the 43 lives lost in the Oso mudslide

The slide wiped out a neighborhood along Highway 530 in 2014. “Even though you feel like you’re alone in your grief, you’re really not.”

Director Lucia Schmit, right, and Deputy Director Dara Salmon inside the Snohomish County Department of Emergency Management on Friday, March 8, 2024, in Everett, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
How Oso slide changed local emergency response ‘on virtually every level’

“In a decade, we have just really, really advanced,” through hard-earned lessons applied to the pandemic, floods and opioids.

Ron and Gail Thompson at their home on Monday, March 4, 2024 in Oso, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
In shadow of scarred Oso hillside, mudslide’s wounds still feel fresh

Locals reflected on living with grief and finding meaning in the wake of a catastrophe “nothing like you can ever imagine” in 2014.

Everett mall renderings from Brixton Capital. (Photo provided by the City of Everett)
Topgolf at the Everett Mall? Mayor’s hint still unconfirmed

After Cassie Franklin’s annual address, rumors circled about what “top” entertainment tenant could be landing at Everett Mall.

Everett
Everett man sentenced to 3 years of probation for mutilating animals

In 2022, neighbors reported Blayne Perez, 35, was shooting and torturing wildlife in north Everett.

Dorothy Crossman rides up on her bike to turn in her ballot  on Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Everett leaders plan to ask voters for property tax increase

City officials will spend weeks hammering out details of a ballot measure, as Everett faces a $12.6 million deficit.

Starbucks employee Zach Gabelein outside of the Mill Creek location where he works on Friday, Feb. 23, 2024 in Mill Creek, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Mill Creek Starbucks votes 21-1 to form union

“We obviously are kind of on the high of that win,” store bargaining delegate Zach Gabelein said.

Lynnwood police respond to a collision on highway 99 at 176 street SW. (Photo provided by Lynnwood Police)
Southbound lanes on Highway 99 reopen after crash

The crash, on Highway 99 at 176th Street SW, blocked traffic for over an hour. Traffic was diverted to 168th Street SW.

The view of Mountain Loop Mine out the window of a second floor classroom at Fairmount Elementary on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
County: Everett mining yard violated order to halt work next to school

At least 10 reports accused OMA Construction of violating a stop-work order next to Fairmount Elementary. A judge will hear the case.

Imagine Children's Museum's incoming CEO, Elizabeth "Elee" Wood. (Photo provided by Imagine Children's Museum)
Imagine Children’s Museum in Everett to welcome new CEO

Nancy Johnson, who has led Imagine Children’s Museum in Everett for 25 years, will retire in June.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.