Freshman Democratic congresswoman Suzan DelBene expected a bruising campaign for re-election.
Republican leaders made no secret of wanting to unseat her in the 1st Congressional District to bolster the party’s majority in the House of Representatives.
They had a candidate, Pedro Celis, with an interesting life story and impressive resume poised to make a serious run in the district with an electorate of roughly equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
But Celis foundered in the August primary, finishing a distant second to DelBene and uncomfortably close to not advancing to the general election at all.
Now, with voting for the Nov. 4 election under way, DelBene seems on course for an easier-than-expected victory. Celis’ campaign is shy on money, and the Republican Party establishment that urged him into the race has politely retreated and put its financial resources into other contests around the country.
Robert Jones, west regional political director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said no one’s abandoned Celis.
“We’re closely monitoring the race,” he said. “Pedro is running a strong campaign heading into the election. We see Pedro is in a really good spot.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nationally respected source of political prognostication, labeled this a “Safe Democratic” seat a year ago and never altered its prediction.
Celis’ campaign “doesn’t seem like it ever got going,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for the publication, produced at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He made the prediction.
Even a recent poll put out by the Celis campaign showing him trailing DelBene 43 percent to 34 percent didn’t shake Kondik’s confidence in his prediction.
“If your own poll shows you’re down nine, you’re probably down more,” he said.
The incumbent
The 1st Congressional District stretches south from the Canadian border through parts of Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish and King counties. It takes in parts of Snohomish County east of I-5 including Darrington, Lake Stevens, Mill Creek, Monroe, Snohomish and Sultan.
This is DelBene’s third election in two years for the job.
In 2012, after Jay Inslee resigned as congressman to run for governor, the state simultaneously conducted a special election to complete Inslee’s term and a regular election for the full two-year tour of duty.
DelBene won both, beating Republican John Koster of Arlington in each. And a big reason the former Microsoft marketing vice president succeeded is the $2.8 million of her own money she spent.
This time she doesn’t need to tap her personal wealth. She had raised $2.2 million through Sept. 30, evenly split between donations from individuals and from political committees. She had $400,000 in cash on hand at the start of October.
DelBene’s tenure has been marked by tragedies in the district, partisan tumult in Congress and a new terrorist threat in the world.
She found herself helping marshal federal aid to the district twice — in response to the partial collapse of the Skagit River Bridge in 2013 and the deadly mudslide in Oso earlier this year.
As a member of the House minority, she has been a steadfast Democratic vote against GOP efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and to more strictly regulate abortions. At the same time, she searched for allies in the Republican caucus on agriculture and national security to carry out a campaign promise to not be controlled by partisanship.
With the rise of ISIS, she joined the majority of House members in supporting President Barack Obama’s plan to assist rebel forces in Syria. But she has said the president should not authorize use of U.S. troops until Congress has a “full debate” on the matter.
On the campaign trail, DelBene, 52, of Medina, said she’s kept her pledge to work to find bipartisan solutions to national problems.
She trumpets her work with Republicans to pass a federal farm bill and to secure GOP support for her amendment steering $200 million into job training programs for food stamp recipients.
She also cites work crafting House bills to rein in the domestic surveillance program of the National Security Agency.“I think I’ve shown myself to be someone willing to work with others to make sure we get things done,” she said.
The challenger
Celis, 55, of Redmond, grew up in Mexico, earned an undergraduate degree at the Monterrey Institute of Technology and a doctorate from the University of Waterloo in Ontario before coming to the U.S. for a career in high tech. He moved to the Pacific Northwest in 1998 to work for Microsoft, where he retired as an engineer two years ago.
On the campaign trail, Celis talks about how he and his wife have lived the “American Dream” and about how his campaign is about ensuring others can, too.
“We’ve been blessed in this country and we want to serve this country,” he said.
He’s been involved in politics, though never as a candidate. He is a former chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly and served on President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election committee.
Earlier this year in Olympia, he stood with Republican state senators to endorse a soon-to-be-new law allowing undocumented immigrants to receive financial aid from the state.
Celis entered this race with the full faith and backing of GOP leaders. In June, the Republican National Campaign Committee named him one of its “Young Guns,” which typically translates into financial and strategic support.
All the attention might have given Celis too much confidence, because he didn’t mount much of a campaign in the primary, and it showed in the results.
He did well enough in Whatcom and King counties to overcome poor showings in Snohomish and Skagit counties. In Snohomish County, he finished third among Republicans.
After the primary, Celis rejiggered his message to appeal to party conservatives and to capitalize on many voters’ unhappiness with Obama. It’s meant trying harder to link DelBene with the president’s policies — a formula which is working for Republicans elsewhere.
But he’s not raised enough money to keep pace with DelBene. He brought in $609,910 through Sept 30, of which 10 percent is his own money. Celis had $92,000 in cash to start October.
Chris Vance, former chairman of the state Republican Party, said a victory is still very much within reach.
DelBene only pulled 51 percent in the primary, meaning that nearly half the voters wanted someone else, Vance noted. Add expected low turnout, in which Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are predicted to outnumber Democrats, and the key ingredients are there for him.
“That’s why I think this race is still competitive,” said Vance, who does some political consulting and teaches a class on campaign management at the University of Washington. “They have to hope there is a Republican wave, and he has to ride it.”
A few issues
DelBene and Celis differ on many topics.
She supports gay marriage, abortion rights and increasing the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour.
Celis voted against legalizing gay marriage, personally opposes abortion and doesn’t want the minimum wage increased.
DelBene supports the Affordable Care Act but said it’s not perfect, and some revisions are needed.
Celis said it should to be overhauled, with a few provisions retained and most tossed out.
Celis supports building a proposed coal export terminal at Cherry Point. DelBene has declined to take a stand until results of exhaustive environmental reviews are in.
DelBene intends to vote for Initiative 594 to require background checks on private sales of handguns. Celis plans to vote against it.
DelBene said “science has been very clear” on the contribution of humans to climate change. Celis said he knows the climate is changing but is “not convinced it is manmade.”
On immigration, DelBene is one of 200 sponsors of a comprehensive bill that includes additional spending on border security and provides an path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the country.
Celis said he wants border security beefed up and the number of foreign workers allowed into the country increased. He said the bill backed by DelBene would grant amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants living in the country, and he opposes amnesty.
However, Celis said he wouldn’t deport those already here. “That’s not fiscally responsible,” he said at a candidates’ forum.
His answer: Create a “yellow card” that would be a way for them to be here legally without being put “ahead of all those people with green cards” seeking citizenship.
A question at a recent forum on how they would “put the country back to work” spotlighted the candidates’ different approaches.
Congress needed to create a stronger foundation for economic development, DelBene said. That requires adopting a budget rather than operating the government under short-term resolutions. There also needs to be investment in public infrastructure like highways and in public education to ensure students are prepared to work.
Celis criticized DelBene for believing “government needs to do x, y and z” to solve the problem. He backs a balanced budget amendment and called for less taxation, regulation and federal intrusion in the private sector.
“I think a big reason this economy is not doing well is because the government has been more of a problem than a solution,” Celis said.
Jerry Cornfield: 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com.
The candidates
Name: Suzan DelBene
Party: Democratic
Age: 52
Experience: Congresswoman, elected in 1st Congressional District in 2012; former director of the state Department of Revenue; former marketing vice president for Microsoft.
Website: www.delbeneforcongress.com
Name: Pedro Celis
Party: Republican
Age: 55
Experience: Retired Microsoft engineer, former chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly; member of President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election committee and Viva Bush Coalition.
Website: www.pedroforcongress.com
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