SEATTLE — A whole lot is at stake for the Seattle Seahawks their next two games.
Thanks to their recent hot streak, Green Bay’s loss in Buffalo on Sunday, and two losses by Arizona last month — one of them at the hands of Seattle — the Seahawks not only can win the division by winning their final two games, they can clinch a first-round bye and very likely earn the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage if they beat the Cardinals on Sunday and St. Louis in Week 17.
As you likely know by now, the Seahawks will be assured at least the No. 2 seed if they finish 12-4, and in most scenarios, they are the No. 1 seed with that record. The only way the Seahawks can win out and not earn home-field advantage is if they finish in a two-way tie with the Dallas Cowboys, who would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with Seattle.
If, however, the Seahawks, Cowboys and Green Bay or Detroit finish 12-4, or if Seattle finishes in a tie with just Green Bay or Detroit, who are both currently 10-4 and who play each other in Week 17, then the Seahawks would win those tiebreakers.
Of course, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll won’t allow his players think about what they can accomplish the next two weeks, lest those thoughts keep them from taking care of the task at hand.
“That’s not the stuff to talk about,” Carroll said. “It’s so obvious why we don’t talk about it, but we’ve been preparing for championship games all season long and playing like they are, and the more we do that, the more comfortable I hope we’ll feel with the big setting that this one brings and all the hype that people are going to put on it.
“We’re not going to play any different; we’re going to try to play the same kind of football. That we’ve been playing and that means we’re going to give everything we’ve got, try to go all out to get a win and take it to the next week.”
But just because Carroll and the Seahawks won’t look ahead, that doesn’t mean we can’t. And while the scenarios for home-field advantage have to wait another week, the Seahawks have four options to clinch a playoff berth this week, so let’s take a look at those.
1. Seahawks win and Green Bay loses at Tampa Bay (2-12).
Likelihood of this happening: Slim to none. The Seahawks are a heavy favorite despite playing on the road against an 11-3 team that is undefeated at home — the Cardinals being down to a third-string quarterback tends to scare odds makers and bettors a bit. So that half of the equation is very doable. However, expecting Tampa Bay, even at home, to beat a motivated Packers squad is asking a lot.
2. Seahawks win and Detroit loses at Chicago (5-9).
Likelihood of this happening: Again, very unlikely. Did you watch the Bears play on Monday Night Football this week? Like Green Bay, the Lions have everything to play for, while Chicago looked very much like a team ready for its season to be over. The Lions have been prone to inconsistent play at time, so a loss isn’t out of the question, but don’t bet on it.
In these two scenarios, the Seahawks, with 11 wins, are guaranteed to at least match the record of Green Bay or Detroit if that team loses, and Seattle has the tiebreaker against both, hence the ability to clinch even with a Week 17 loss. But if you are of the belief that the Seahawks can win out, then you should actually be pulling for Green Bay and Detroit to win this week, even if it means waiting another week for the Seahawks to clinch a playoff spot. If the Seahawks do finish 12-4, and if Green Bay and Detroit both win this week, that means the only way Seattle can get that two-way tie with Dallas is if the Packers and Lions tie in their Week 17 battle for the NFC North.
3. Seahawks win and Philadelphia (9-5) loses at Washington (3-11).
Likelihood of this happening: Hahahahaha. Oh, you want a real answer? OK, well Washington has lost six in a row. It has a coach who can’t make up his mind about his quarterback and who regularly and openly criticizes the current starter, Robert Griffin III. And Washington has lost by double digits in four of its six consecutive losses. As a team fighting with the Jets for the title of NFL’s Most Dysfunctional Franchise, Washington isn’t going to beat the Eagles, who are fighting for their playoff lives.
This scenario gets the Seahawks in the playoffs because Philadelphia, with a sixth loss, can’t top Dallas in the NFC East. And if the Seahawks were to finish 10-6, they at worst would be tied for a Wild Card berth with some combination of Philadelphia if it wins in Week 17, and if Green Bay or Detroit loses out, that team as well — and the Seahawks would have a tiebreaker over all three.
4. Philadelphia loses and Dallas (10-4) wins at home against Indianapolis (10-4).
Likelihood of this happening: (see above cackling at the notion of a Washington victory). Dallas, however, could easily lose to the Colts, especially when you consider that all four of the Cowboys’ losses this season have come at home.
This scenario does not require a Seahawks’ victory over Arizona to clinch a playoff berth. If the Eagles lose, Dallas clinches the NFC East and the Eagles take a sixth loss, meaning even if the Seahawks lose their next two and finish 10-6, they would tie Philadelphia. Seattle holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Eagles, making the Seahawks one of the two Wild-Card teams along with whoever doesn’t win the North between Detroit and Green Bay. Seahawks fans should root against this scenario, however, because Dallas, as noted above, is the only team that can win a tiebreaker with Seattle for the No. 1 seed. So a Dallas loss to the Colts would put the Seahawks in complete control of their destiny at 12-4.
Herald Columnist John Boyle: jboyle@heraldnet.com
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