SEATTLE — Statistical analysis in baseball isn’t, as it often seems, always at odds with those who judge the game through an eye test. Cue up Mariners first baseman Logan Morrison over the first 15 games.
Eye test:
“He’s hitting in some tough luck right now,” manager Lloyd McClendon said. “He’s hit some balls extremely hard. He’s had a couple home runs brought back into the ballpark.”
Stat crunch:
Morrison has a .200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which seeks to measure a player’s luck at the plate since it covers every plate appearance in which the defense has a chance to make a play on the ball. Exceptions include striking out, getting a walk, being hit by a pitch, reaching on catcher’s interference, executing a sacrifice bunt or hitting a home run. And, yes, that means all of those homers hurt Nelson Cruz’s BABIP.
Back to LoMo: His BABIP isn’t just the worst among the Mariners’ regular players, it ranks among the worst in baseball. The major-league average BABIP through Wednesday was .290, and it usually hovers near .300.
So all agreed? Tough luck?
“The more people get a book on you,” Morrison rationalizes, “the more tough luck you’re going to run into. But at the same time, I have to do a better job of having better at-bats throughout the entirety of the game.”
Morrison has a .280 BABIP in his six big-league seasons. So he’s often been at least a few ticks below the major-league average. That’s due, in part, to the increasing tendency by clubs to shift their defensive alignments.
Since Morrison is a dead pull hitter, opponents regularly compensate by shifting their shortstop to the right side of second base.
“I’ve hit some balls into the shift,” he acknowledged. “I’ve hit some balls past the shift. I think the better my swing gets, the better my recognition gets, the more I’m going to break the shift.
“I don’t really know the data. I just know if I’m going good, I’m not worried about where the infield is playing. It’s more about the outfielders and, hopefully, they can’t get to it when I hit it into the gap.”
That’s also supported by numbers.
Morrison faced similar shifts a year ago and produced a .345 BABIP over his final 51 games while compiling a .321/.372/.506 slash (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage).
It was, perhaps, the finest sustained stretch of his career and dissuaded club officials from searching last winter for alternatives at first base. For now, those club officials are staying patient.
“Obviously, you’d like to see (Morrison hit) better,” McClendon said, “and you’d like to see it very quickly. History says that he will hit. Stay aggressive. Keep swinging the bat and good things will happen.”
So Morrison grinds on.
“It’s tough to sleep sometimes,” he admitted, “but it’s not because I’m not hitting well. It’s because I’m not hitting well, and we’re not winning. It makes it a little easier if you are winning.”
The Mariners entered the season amid high expectations but are just 6-9 as they open a three-game series Friday against Minnesota at Safeco Field.
“It’s a long season,” Morrison said. “You don’t want to keep saying that to give yourself an excuse. Keep saying, ‘We’ll get them tomorrow, we’ll get them tomorrow.’ We want to get them tonight.
“At the same time, you know you’ve got a lot ahead of you. It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon. All of the cliches you can come up with. It keeps you level-headed. It keeps you steady.
“You come to the field, ready to go every day, and ready to beat somebody up. Make somebody pay.”
A little better luck wouldn’t hurt.
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