U.S. economy shrank in winter but staging a spring rebound

  • By Martin Crutsinger Associated Press
  • Friday, May 29, 2015 8:39am
  • Business

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, depressed by a severe winter and a widening trade deficit.

The government’s revision for last quarter was weaker than its initial estimate of a 0.2 percent growth rate. The U.S. trade gap — the difference between the value of exports and the larger value of imports — was found to be wider than first estimated. And consumer spending was slower than previously thought.

But steady job gains are expected to fuel modestly healthy growth for the rest of 2015. The harsh winter, which kept many consumers home and businesses closed, and a labor dispute that slowed trade at West Coast ports are both over. Home sales and construction are rebounding, along with business investment.

Analysts generally foresee the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, growing at an annual rate of 2 percent to 2.5 percent in the April-June quarter, with further strengthening later in the year. But risks remain: A stronger dollar, which makes U.S. exports more expensive, will likely continue to keep the trade deficit wide. And cutbacks in oil drilling, a result of low energy prices, could depress spending in the energy industry.

“While the evidence of a second-quarter rebound hasn’t been overwhelming, we still think that the outlook for the economy is very encouraging,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

Last quarter’s contraction marked the first since a 2.1 percent annual drop in the first three months of 2014, a slump that was also due in part to severe winter weather.

Last quarter, the trade gap subtracted 1.9 percentage points from growth, the biggest drag in 30 years. Consumer spending, which drives about 70 percent of economic activity, slowed to annual growth of just 1.8 percent for the quarter, slightly below the government’s first estimate. Consumers spent less on mobile phone services, among other expenses, than initially thought.

One of the biggest hits to the economy last quarter came from cuts in drilling activity by energy companies — fallout from the sharp drop in oil prices over the past year. The government said investment in the category that covers energy exploration plunged at an annual rate of 48.6 percent, the steepest drop since 2009, during the Great Recession.

The government also downgraded its estimate of the boost the economy got from business restocking. That change should be a positive for second quarter growth, because it means businesses won’t have as large a backlog of unsold goods.

Not all the revisions to the initial estimate for the first quarter were lower. Housing construction and business investment in equipment were both revised higher.

Though falling GDP can be a sign of a recession, economists see little cause for such concern this year.

Many economists also suspect that the government’s calculations have tended to underestimate growth in the first quarter of each year. GDP has contracted in three quarters since the recession ended six years ago, and all three declines came in the first quarter of the year.

The outlook has brightened considerably since winter. Most economists expect lower gas prices will eventually accelerate consumer spending, the main fuel for the economy.

So far, most consumers haven’t used their gasoline savings to spend much more on other goods and services. The average U.S. pump price reached $2.03 a gallon in January, the lowest level in eight years. Though the average has risen back to $2.74, according to AAA, that’s still nearly a dollar below its point a year ago.

Analysts also say that steadily solid hiring, which has helped cut the unemployment rate to a seven-year low of 5.4 percent, will continue to put money in more people’s hands and fuel spending gains.

“We are more than halfway through quarter two and we are seeing signs that the economy is recovering from the weak first quarter,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

She said several economic reports next week including consumer spending, the trade deficit and auto sales for May should provide important clues on the economy’s momentum.

Also, some of the first quarter weakness may be revised away by government statisticians, who are studying whether their methods for making seasonal adjustments tend to overstate slowdowns during winter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has said some adjustments will be reflected in the annual updates to economic growth it will issue in July.

The government will release its third and final estimate for first-quarter GDP on June 24.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Business

Black Press Media operates Sound Publishing, the largest community news organization in Washington State with dailies and community news outlets in Alaska.
Black Press Media concludes transition of ownership

Black Press Media, which operates Sound Publishing, completed its sale Monday (March 25), following the formerly announced corporate restructuring.

Maygen Hetherington, executive director of the Historic Downtown Snohomish Association, laughs during an interview in her office on Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024, in Snohomish, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Maygen Hetherington: tireless advocate for the city of Snohomish

Historic Downtown Snohomish Association receives the Opportunity Lives Here award from Economic Alliance.

FILE - Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs poses in front of photos of the 15 people who previously held the office on Nov. 22, 2021, after he was sworn in at the Capitol in Olympia, Wash. Hobbs faces several challengers as he runs for election to the office he was appointed to last fall. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)
Secretary of State Steve Hobbs: ‘I wanted to serve my country’

Hobbs, a former Lake Stevens senator, is the recipient of the Henry M. Jackson Award from Economic Alliance Snohomish County.

Mark Duffy poses for a photo in his office at the Mountain Pacific Bank headquarters on Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024 in Everett, Washington. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
Mark Duffy: Building a hometown bank; giving kids an opportunity

Mountain Pacific Bank’s founder is the recipient of the Fluke Award from Economic Alliance Snohomish County.

Barb Tolbert poses for a photo at Silver Scoop Ice Cream on Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024 in Arlington, Washington. (Annie Barker / The Herald)
Barb Tolbert: Former mayor piloted Arlington out of economic brink

Tolbert won the Elson S. Floyd Award, honoring a leader who has “created lasting opportunities” for the underserved.

Photo provided by 
Economic Alliance
Economic Alliance presented one of the Washington Rising Stem Awards to Katie Larios, a senior at Mountlake Terrace High School.
Mountlake Terrace High School senior wins state STEM award

Katie Larios was honored at an Economic Alliance gathering: “A champion for other young women of color in STEM.”

The Westwood Rainier is one of the seven ships in the Westwood line. The ships serve ports in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast Asia. (Photo provided by Swire Shipping)
Westwood Shipping Lines, an Everett mainstay, has new name

The four green-hulled Westwood vessels will keep their names, but the ships will display the Swire Shipping flag.

A Keyport ship docked at Lake Union in Seattle in June 2018. The ship spends most of the year in Alaska harvesting Golden King crab in the Bering Sea. During the summer it ties up for maintenance and repairs at Lake Union. (Keyport LLC)
In crabbers’ turbulent moment, Edmonds seafood processor ‘saved our season’

When a processing plant in Alaska closed, Edmonds-based business Keyport stepped up to solve a “no-win situation.”

Angela Harris, Executive Director of the Port of Edmonds, stands at the port’s marina on Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2024, in Edmonds, Washington. (Ryan Berry / The Herald)
Leadership, love for the Port of Edmonds got exec the job

Shoring up an aging seawall is the first order of business for Angela Harris, the first woman to lead the Edmonds port.

The Cascade Warbirds fly over Naval Station Everett. (Sue Misao / The Herald file)
Bothell High School senior awarded $2,500 to keep on flying

Cascade Warbirds scholarship helps students 16-21 continue flight training and earn a private pilot’s certificate.

Rachel Gardner, the owner of Musicology Co., a new music boutique record store on Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024 in Edmonds, Washington. Musicology Co. will open in February, selling used and new vinyl, CDs and other music-related merchandise. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
New Edmonds record shop intends to be a ‘destination for every musician’

Rachel Gardner opened Musicology Co. this month, filling a record store gap in Edmonds.

MyMyToyStore.com owner Tom Harrison at his brick and mortar storefront on Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2022 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Burst pipe permanently closes downtown Everett toy store

After a pipe flooded the store, MyMyToystore in downtown Everett closed. Owner Tom Harrison is already on to his next venture.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.