Question: How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?
Answer: Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us – albeit in shrinking volumes – for another hundred years.
Earth’s recoverable oil resource is estimated by many experts to be at least 3 trillion barrels and potentially more than 4 trillion barrels. If global consumption rises about 2 percent a year from current levels of about 85 million barrels a day, the amount in the low end of that range is enough to last until roughly 2070.
“If money were no object, you could get every bit out” and extend the petroleum age well into the 22nd century, said Energy Department analyst David Morehouse.
Of course, Morehouse’s point was theoretical, not realistic.
U.S. government research that is widely respected among analysts concludes that a peak in output – or the point at which half of the world’s reserves are depleted – is likely to arrive around the middle of this century, give or take a decade or so.
Some analysts believe the inevitable decline in production will be preceded by an undulating plateau, rather than a peak. Still others stress that the key to making the world’s oil resources last this long is maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand; that is necessary, they say, in order to keep prices high enough to spur steady investment in oil exploration, while at the same time encouraging conservation and the development of alternative fuels.
A vocal but much smaller group of energy experts argues that mainstream geoscientists and oil analysts are guilty of being dangerously optimistic, that a peak may have already occurred and that the current supply tightness and price volatility underscores the urgent need for a post-petroleum game plan. Many environmentalists share this view.
“It’s a treadmill you can’t win,” said Matthew Simmons, a Houston investment banker and author of “Twilight in the Desert: the Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the Global Economy.”
If nothing else, long-term forecasts of future supply and demand are highly speculative.
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