This map shows the 171 locations along Washington’s coastline for which relative sea level projections are provided. At each location, a different estimate of vertical land movement and associated uncertainty is combined with the statewide projections for absolute sea level to produce a locally-specific set of projections for relative sea level rise. (Washington Sea Grant and the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group)

This map shows the 171 locations along Washington’s coastline for which relative sea level projections are provided. At each location, a different estimate of vertical land movement and associated uncertainty is combined with the statewide projections for absolute sea level to produce a locally-specific set of projections for relative sea level rise. (Washington Sea Grant and the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group)

Report shows detailed projections for Washington rising seas

The state has more than 3,000 miles of coastline.

  • By PHUONG LE Associated Press
  • Monday, July 30, 2018 8:53am
  • Northwest

By Phuong Le / Associated Press

SEATTLE — A new report provides the most detailed projections for how fast sea levels are expected to rise along Washington state shorelines over the next decades.

The projections released Monday show what to expect at 171 sites in Puget Sound and along the state’s outer coast sea levels rise due to global warming. The information is more local and specific than previous assessments.

Scientists with Washington Sea Grant and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group calculated the likelihood that sea levels will reach or exceed a certain level for each location and under different greenhouse gas scenarios.

Harriet Morgan, a research consultant at UW Climate Impacts Group and report co-author, said previous projections for the state have been “too zoomed out to be useful.” Now, local planners and others can click on a map and download estimates for their locations.

“Because we zoomed in, we captured local variations and land movement along the coast,” she said. “This is something that we heard from local decision makers. We need numbers that are specific for our communities and local areas.”

Sea level rise is caused by warming of the ocean and melting from glaciers and ice sheets.

Washington has more than 3,000 miles of coastline. Rising sea level is a concern because it can increase the risk of flooding, storm surges, coastal bluff and shoreline erosion and loss of wetlands or other habitat. It can also damage roads and buildings and impact fisheries.

The estimates give a full range of possible future sea level changes, allowing planners to weigh the risks of different scenarios as they locate hospitals, roads or septic tanks.

The report incorporates the latest science and takes into account variations in the estimated land movement, whether land is sinking or uplifting, in each location.

“There are places in Washington state and elsewhere the land is uplifting and that will counteract absolute sea level change. And there are places that are subsiding,” said Ian Miller, a coastal hazards specialist at Washington Sea Grant who co-authored the report.

Areas such as Neah Bay on the northwest Washington coast are estimated to be uplifting, or rising, and have lower projected changes in sea level compared to areas of central Puget Sound, including Seattle, that are sinking.

In general, most communities are expected to see between 2 feet and 3 feet by 2100 under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, Miller said.

By 2100 in Seattle, sea level is projected to rise between 1.7 feet and 3.1 feet under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise over time. Meanwhile, by 2100, sea level is estimated to rise between 1 feet and 2.6 feet in Taholah and 1.3 feet to 2.7 feet in Bellingham.

“This finer level of detail allows us to do better planning,” said Jim Parvey, chief sustainability officer for the city of Tacoma, who is working with the authors to incorporate the projections into city planning.

“We’re trying to get our minds around the problem and figure out how to build infrastructure that’s going to last. We need to do our best to guess what the conditions are going to be like in the future that we have to cope with,” he said.

The report is part of the three-year Washington Coastal Resilience Project to help communities prepare for natural events that threaten the coast due to rising sea levels.

Talk to us

> Give us your news tips.

> Send us a letter to the editor.

> More Herald contact information.

More in Northwest

Alaska Airlines aircraft sit in the airline's hangar at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024, in SeaTac, Wash. Boeing has acknowledged in a letter to Congress that it cannot find records for work done on a door panel that blew out on an Alaska Airlines flight over Oregon two months ago. Ziad Ojakli, Boeing executive vice president and chief government lobbyist, wrote to Sen. Maria Cantwell on Friday, March 8 saying, “We have looked extensively and have not found any such documentation.” (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
FBI tells passengers on 737 flight they might be crime victims

Passengers received letters this week from a victim specialist from the federal agency’s Seattle office.

Skylar Meade (left) and Nicholas Umphenour.
Idaho prison gang member and accomplice caught after ambush

Pair may have killed 2 while on the run, police say. Three police officers were hospitalized with gunshot wounds after the attack at a Boise hospital.

Barbara Peraza-Garcia holds her 2-year-old daughter, Frailys, while her partner Franklin Peraza sits on their bed in their 'micro apartment' in Seattle on Monday, March 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Manuel Valdes)
Micro-apartments are back after nearly a century, as need for affordable housing soars

Boarding houses that rented single rooms to low-income, blue-collar or temporary workers were prevalent across the U.S. in the early 1900s.

Teen blamed for crash that kills woman, 3 children in Renton

Four people were hospitalized, including three with life-threatening injuries. The teenage driver said to be at fault is under guard at a hospital.

The Washington state Capitol building in February. (Bill Lucia / Washington State Standard)
Voters are about to remake WA Legislature. Here are 7 races to watch.

Democrats hope to grow their majorities in the state House and Senate. The path may be through a local race.

In a team publicity photo, Nora Hayd, a Boise State University sophomore and beach volleyball player. “I just wanted to look as much like myself as I could,” Hayd said of the goth-look team photos that made her an online sensation. (Boise State Athletics via The New York Times)
Bothell High grad goes viral as Boise State’s goth volleyball player

Nora Hayd said she was actually toning things down in her team photo shoot.

Republican Dave Reichert, left, and Democrat Bob Ferguson, right. (Campaign photos)
Ferguson, Reichert clash on crime, abortion and Trump in first debate

Clear differences emerged in the first face-to-face encounter between the candidates battling to be Washington’s next governor.

Workers next to an unpainted 737 aircraft and unattached wing with the Ryanair logo as Boeing’s 737 factory teams hold the first day of a “Quality Stand Down” for the 737 program at Boeing’s factory in Renton on Jan. 25. (Jason Redmond/AFP/Getty Images)
7 things to know about a potential Boeing strike

Negotiations between the IAM District 751 union and Boeing are always tense. This time though, the stakes are particularly high.

A man surveys the damage after clashes at a refugee camp in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Dec. 7, 2023. (Afif Amireh/The New York Times)
Seattle woman shot and killed at West Bank protest

Three witnesses who attended the protest said Israeli forces killed Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, 26.

Snow is visible along the top of Mount Pilchuck from bank of the Snohomish River on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 in Everett, Washington. (Olivia Vanni / The Herald)
Washington issues statewide drought declaration, including Snohomish County

Drought is declared when there is less than 75% of normal water supply and “there is the risk of undue hardship.”

Dave Calhoun, center, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on Jan. 24. (Samuel Corum / Bloomberg)
Boeing fired lobbying firm that helped it navigate 737 Max crashes

Amid congressional hearings on Boeing’s “broken safety culture,” the company has severed ties with one of D.C.’s most powerful firms.

Rosario Resort and Spa on Orcas Island (Photo provided by Empower Investing)
Orcas Island’s storied Rosario Resort finds a local owner

Founded by an Orcas Island resident, Empower Investing plans” dramatic renovations” to restore the historic resort.

Support local journalism

If you value local news, make a gift now to support the trusted journalism you get in The Daily Herald. Donations processed in this system are not tax deductible.