By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
The world has warmed approximately 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the industrial revolution increased human consumption of fossil fuels and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Current carbon dioxide levels are 420 parts per million (ppm), 50 percent greater than pre-industrial levels. The Paris agreements set targets to limit global warming to 1.5° C to avoid irreversible damage.
We are rapidly approaching that threshold.
However, a 1 degree C average global temperature increase does not tell the real story. It is like seeing a single frame of an action movie and imagining the rest of the film.
Both global temperatures and GHG emissions are rapidly accelerating. You may have seen the “hockey stick” graph? Most of Earth’s warming has taken place in the past 20 years, and warming at high latitudes — North and South poles — is much greater. The warmest eight years on record have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 constituting the warmest years.
An exceptionally strong El Nino event occurred in 2016, which contributed to record global temperatures and we are entering another El Nino period this year. This July, the World Meteorological Organization reports we are currently experiencing “heat not seen in modern measurements.” We are experiencing extreme heat domes across the southern U.S. from California to Florida. June and July are likely to be among the warmest on record.
Today, we are emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at more than twice the annual rate of the 1960s (2.4 ppm in 2022 vs 1 ppm in 1960). In 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported the annual increase in methane was the largest since systematic measurements began in 1983. Both GHG emission levels — and the consequences associated with these emissions — are accelerating.
Earth’s increasing temperature has changed how we experience the climate and also how we describe it. In the past five years we have become familiar with concepts such as heat domes, atmospheric rivers, rain bombs, king tides, fire storms and the intensity of the smoke those fires produce, and the negative health consequences associated with these events. The statistical frameworks we use to measure frequency and intensity are no longer reliable. Events once measured in terms of “100-year events” (a 1 percent chance in a given year) now occur regularly.
Warmer air holds more moisture and warmer water holds less oxygen, resulting in or contributing to climate-influenced events. Climate-influenced events (e.g. heat, floods, droughts, wildfires, sea level raise and ocean acidification) are increasing in frequency, intensity and cost. According to NOAA, there have been 341 weather and climate events that have cost $1 billion or more since 1980. The total is $2.475 trillion. In 2022, climate fueled disasters cost $165 billion with 18 separate billion-dollar disaster events.
Those costly climate events will continue to increase in frequency and severity until there is a sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a clean energy economy. Clean energy transition is the focus of the Inflation Reduction Act passed by Congress in 2022; the most significant action in U.S. history addressing climate change.
Climate-influenced events are having profound effects on the economy in terms of costs to infrastructure, increasing risk, liability, business costs, insurance and finance. Mitigating decades of reckless climate damage won’t come cheap. However, a clean energy economy, rapidly reducing GHG emissions is the answer. And it is possible. The economics have shifted in favor of clean energy.
It’s now cheaper to save the planet than it is to destroy it. But time is short, and the tasks are huge.
The time to act is now. Mother nature is repeatedly sending wake-up calls. For over 50 years we have chosen to ignore them, and our choices now are fewer and more difficult as a result. The challenges in developing a clean energy economy are both technical and political. The technical side requires actionable strategies and R&D at speed and scale. Not everything in the economy can be easily or quickly converted to clean energy. This will take time, resources and commitment from public and private sectors. The political response requires will power not willful ignorance.
Among thousands of studies and books written on the subject, two come to mind not normally associated with climate change: Abraham Maslow’s “Hierarchy of Needs,” and “The Lorax” by Dr. Seuss. Maslow teaches us that our basic needs include food and shelter. Human beings are hard-wired to make short term decisions to satisfy immediate needs. If we cannot feed and house our families as we transition to clean energy, we likely cannot save the planet. “The Lorax” teaches us that we are capable of sacrificing our environment for short-term economic gains, and we must act before it’s too late.
Our future depends on understanding these lessons. The Eco-nomics series is about how we can successfully take on these urgent tasks.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions —carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, will focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
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