Commentary: Restart economy by testing, tracing and isolating

By Paul Roberts / For The Herald

In the battle to defeat the COVID-19 coronavirus, the two most important patients are the health care system and the economy. Both are in serious condition, and lives quite literally depend on both being healthy and fully functional as soon as possible.

However, the two require very different treatments. The health care system requires social isolation to slow the spread of the virus. The economy requires social interaction for jobs and commerce. The prescription for both is to test, trace and quarantine to bring the health care system and the economy back to health — together.

Human beings have no natural immunity to the COVID-19 virus. It will pursue its victims — us — unabated until we reach herd immunity, or have an effective vaccine. The vaccine is estimated to be 12 to 18 months away. So, until then, we need effective strategies to avoid overwhelming the health care system, protect health care workers and manage the spread of the virus. Robust testing, contact tracing and quarantining are the tools to accomplishing this. The economy cannot recover without a stable health care system.

Think of the strategy as a game of whack-a-mole. With testing, tracing and quarantining we can play the game and win. Without them we are playing blindfolded and the virus wins.

Two types of testing are required: one to detect the virus and another to detect antibodies for those who have had the disease and have recovered. An effective strategy requires identifying those who test positive and tracing and isolating their contacts, while allowing free movement for those who have been exposed and are no longer contagious. Such an approach can manage emerging hot spots and buy time for the health care system to regroup, protect first responders with personal protective equipment, provide ventilators, beds and essential capacity. Currently, robust testing is not available at scale anywhere in the U.S. and there are no coordinated contact6 tracing systems.

The health care system was not designed to treat pandemics. It was designed to diagnose and treat all manner of diseases and conditions. Now, except for emergencies, non-COVID treatments are largely off the table while the system struggles to respond to the pandemic. Our objective must be to return the system to normal, or as close as possible, until a vaccine is available. In the meantime, we need to avoid overwhelming the system.

The economy cannot recover without a stable health care system and a safe workforce. Fearful shoppers will limit their shopping. People afraid of exposure will avoid restaurants and malls. They won’t even go to the doctor if they don’t feel safe, and without a job or health insurance they can’t afford to go. Workers will not want to go to jobs, or will be less productive, if they fear for their safety and that of their families.

Absent an effective strategy, damage to the economy will increase. Small businesses will be without customers. Inventories and supply chains necessary for commerce and manufacturing will be further disrupted. Rehiring employees will be delayed or cancelled. Government services will be drastically cut. An effective strategy can be the difference between a short recession and a depression. A “V” shaped recovery is better than a “U” or “W” shape with fits and starts and a long tail.

An effective strategy can reduce the risk of systemic economic damage and the loss of life due to disease and despair. The road ahead is not paved. It will be bumpy. However, a managed approach can move us forward while a vaccine is produced and deployed. Swift action is necessary. To be effective it is best coming from the federal government or, failing that, the states. The governors of Washington, Oregon and California are on the right path. The right strategy can save lives, the health care system and the economy.

Paul Roberts, a member of the Everett City Council, is a consultant with over 45 years experience in environmental and economic policy. He also serves as chairman of the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency Board, and vice chairman of the Sound Transit Board. His views are his own.