By Paul Roberts / For The Herald
Heat is the most lethal of all climate change impacts, posing the greatest immediate threat to human health. Extreme heat events are increasing in frequency and intensity.
In his newly released book “The Heat Will Kill You First,” journalist Jeff Goodell provides a detailed examination of global warming, the history and the consequences for human health and the health of all living things on the planet.
“The only effective treatment for heatstroke is to get a person’s core temperature down, fast,” Goodell writes.
It’s the same for the planet. Reducing the earth’s temperature by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transitioning to a clean energy economy as quickly as possible is the most effective treatment for global warming. Until that happens, the heat will continue to build, and with it the consequences for a warming world.
Burning fossil fuels at ever larger amounts increases GHG emissions, trapping the sun’s heat energy where it is absorbed in the air and oceans, raising temperatures. Global warming — higher temperatures in the air and oceans — is a primary impact. Climate change and climate-influenced events — wildfires, floods, droughts, changing weather patterns, sea level rise, and more — are secondary impacts driven by heat.
The Goldilocks Zone: For the last 7,000 years humans have lived in a “Goldilocks Zone” where Earth’s temperature variations were relatively stable. All living things — animals, plants, insects and micro-organisms — developed heat management strategies in “a more habitable climate niche” according to Goodell. He points out, the world’s temperature is now changing far too fast for evolutionary selection to keep up. As temperatures increase, humans will adapt by moving to more habitable climates. So will other species.
This movement (aka species migration) is happening in real time and is well documented. Some species, particularly those with more rapid reproduction cycles such as insects or micro-organisms, are more capable of adapting. Some species such as polar bears struggle to adapt as their habitat shrinks and face extinction.
For humans, the decision to move is driven largely in search of basic needs such as food, water, shelter and stable social structures. A warming world will likely result in more scarce resources and unstable governments. The ability to move may depend on financial resources to purchase essentials and relocate to a cooler climate. For an increasing number of people, migration becomes a choice of last resort and survival.
The Economics of Heat: The economic consequences of rising temperatures are inextricably tied to physical impacts and health effects. Rising temperatures will increase costs for a number of sectors including: health care, labor, agriculture, infrastructure, building and construction. These are briefly summarized here and will be examined in subsequent articles on adaptation and mitigation.
Health impacts associated with heat and climate change include heat exhaustion, heat stroke and death; lung and cardio-vascular disease from wildfire smoke and air pollution; and disease migration; including vector-borne diseases from mosquitos, ticks and rodents.
Recent examples of heat-related deaths in Europe include more than 30,000 deaths in 2003 and over 61,000 in 2022. The Pacific Northwest heat dome of 2021 is estimated to have killed over 440 people. Heat-related deaths are typically underreported as heat exacerbates other health conditions. Higher temperatures will stress health care systems around the globe.
Labor costs will increase and productivity decrease as heat increases health risks for workers. Examples include workers in agriculture, construction, package delivery, wildlands firefighters, first responders (police and fire) and utility workers. If you work outside and are unable to adequately access water and shade, you are increasing your risk for heat-related illness and death. Such impacts have ripple effects throughout many sectors of the economy.
Food prices will likely increase as a result of extreme heat. Sustained higher temperatures will directly impact crops ill-suited to higher temperatures. As noted, labor will be impacted, effecting tending and harvesting crops. Secondary impacts include fires, floods and droughts, potentially reducing available land suitable for agriculture.
Infrastructure will be directly and indirectly affected from increased heat. Many utility employees work outdoors under emergency conditions, subjecting them to heat exposure. Road, rail and air transportation systems are effected by excessive heat. Water, surface water and waste-water systems are impacted by drought and flooding.
Electricity generation is particularly sensitive to climate impacts. Higher temperatures increase demand for air conditioning, adding stress to the grid. Heat can make power lines sag, increasing wildfire risk. Wildfires can increase liability as occurred in Oregon and California in recent years. Climate-influenced events such as droughts and fires can sap hydropower generation. A clean energy based economy will increase demand for renewable energy.
Cities will need to be redesigned, responding to heat and changing environmental conditions, effecting land use, transportation, energy and public safety. Building and construction standards will need to be revised. As noted, labor will be effected. This is literally and figuratively a sea change for government and business.
Reducing GHG emissions and holding temperatures in check will reduce risks for humans and all living creatures on the planet. Continuing to burn fossil fuels “with reckless abandon … is taking us on a trip beyond the Goldilocks Zone” Goodell wrote.
The next article will focus on acceleration and attribution.
Paul Roberts is retired and lives in Everett. His career spans over five decades in infrastructure, economics and environmental policy including advising Washington cities on climate change.
Eco-nomics
“Eco-nomics” is a series of articles exploring issues at the intersection of climate change and economics. Climate change (global warming) is caused by greenhouse gas emissions —carbon dioxide and methane chiefly — generated by human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and agricultural practices. Global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. Successfully responding to this threat requires urgent actions — clear plans and actionable strategies — to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate-influenced events.
The Eco-nomics series, to be published every other week in The Herald, will focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies viewed through the twin perspectives of science and economics.
Read the first article at tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics1.
Read the second at tinyurl.com/RobertsEco-nomics2.
Talk to us
> Give us your news tips.
> Send us a letter to the editor.
> More Herald contact information.
